Cutting meat production and consumption by 30 percent would help to reduce carbon emissions and improve health in the most meat-loving nations, scientists said on Wednesday.

    Using prediction models, British and Australian researchers found that improving efficiency, increasing carbon capture and reducing fossil fuel dependence in farming would not be enough to meet emissions targets.

    But combining these steps with a 30 percent reduction in livestock production in major meat-producing nations and a similar cut in meat-eating, would lead to "substantial population health benefits" and cut emissions, they said.

    The study found that in Britain, a 30 percent lower intake of animal-source saturated fat by adults would reduce the number of premature deaths from heart disease by some 17 percent -- equivalent to 18,000 premature deaths averted in one year.

    In Sao Paulo, Brazil, it could mean as many as 1,000 premature deaths averted in a year, they said.

    According to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, 18 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions are from meat production and experts say rising demand for meat, particularly in countries with growing economies, could drive livestock production up by 85 percent from 2000 levels by 2030.

    The scientists said global action was needed to maximize the benefits of cutting meat production and consumption, and that the environmental advantages "may apply only in those countries that currently have high production levels."

    The study was published in The Lancet medical journal as part of a series in climate change and health ahead of the Copenhagen global climate summit scheduled next month.

    In a second study, British scientists found that increased walking and cycling, and fewer cars, would have a much greater impact on health than low-emission vehicles in rich and middle-income countries.

    Andrew Haines, director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and head of the research series, said delegates at Copenhagen needed "to understand the potential health impacts of their plans."

    科學家于本周三稱，如果將最愛食肉國家的肉類生產(chǎn)和消費量減少30%,那么將有助于減少碳排放和改善人們健康。

    英國和澳大利亞的研究人員通過使用預測模型進行研究后發(fā)現(xiàn)，僅靠提高能源使用率、增加碳收集以及降低農(nóng)業(yè)對礦物燃料的依賴還不足以實現(xiàn)減排目標。

    但研究人員稱，如果在此基礎上將肉類主要生產(chǎn)國的家畜產(chǎn)量和肉類消費分別降低30%,則可"極大增進人們的健康",同時減少碳排放。

    研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，在英國，如果成年人攝入的動物飽和脂肪量減少30%,那么因心臟病而早逝的病例數(shù)可減少17%,相當于一年避免1.8萬例早死病例。

    研究人員稱，在巴西圣保羅市，這意味著每年可避免一千個早死病例。

    聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，18%的溫室氣體排放來自于肉類生產(chǎn)。專家稱，到2030年，不斷增長的肉類需求，尤其是發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體的肉類需求，將推動家畜產(chǎn)量在2000年的基礎上增長85%.

    科學家表示，世界各國需采取行動，將減少肉類生產(chǎn)消費的益處最大化，由此產(chǎn)生的環(huán)境優(yōu)勢"可能只適用于目前肉類生產(chǎn)量較高的國家".

    該研究報告在《柳葉刀》醫(yī)學期刊上發(fā)表，在下月的哥本哈根全球環(huán)境峰會召開前，該雜志刊發(fā)了一系列有關氣候變化與健康的文章。

    在另一項研究中，英國科學家發(fā)現(xiàn)，在富裕和中等收入國家，多走路騎車、少開車對于健康的益處比乘坐低排放量的交通工具要大很多。

    該系列研究的負責人、倫敦衛(wèi)生與熱帶醫(yī)學院主任安德魯？海恩斯稱，哥本哈根峰會的與會代表們需"認清他們制定的計劃對于健康的潛在影響".